Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
